GGArmy

Just did a bit of research on the AFC website and had a look at the likely contenders for Round 4.

• Iran
• Jordan
• Iran
• Lebanon
• Uzbekistan
• Oman

• Australia
• Korea
• Japan
• Qatar

Bottom 4 team are the likely seeds. How are the seeds formed for this round? is it based on the FIFA ranking or AFC position at the Asia Cup ? 

As an aside from this, I will have funds and a bit more leave up my sleeve for a good tilt at a couple of away games. 

Would love, in no particular order. 

• South Korea (Nice people)
• Jordan (History)
• Lebanon (Kebabs and attractive woman folk)

Top 4 seeds based on FIFA rankings will be:

Japan (17)
Australia (20)
Korea (31)
Iran (42)

I've emailed AFC for advice about draw process and timing (likely to be in March) and will post when received.

Note that Iraq are one of teams already qualified.

Oman will qualify if they beat Thailand at home, and Saudi cannot beat Australia.  If Saudi get a draw or better then they will qualify if Oman can't beat Thailand. Thailand could only qualify if they beat Oman and we beat Saudi.

Qatar will qualify unless Bahrain (-4 GD) win at home over Indonesia by big score and Qatar (+5 GD) lose away to Iran by big enough score.

Lebanon will qualify unless they lose away to UAE and Kuwait beat Korea away. The latter will qualify with one point at home, or if UAE beat Lebanon.

 Sounds about right Pablo.

My guess on how the groups pan out

Australia

South Korea

Uzbekistan

Jordan

Lebanon

Other group

Japan

Iran

Qatar

Iraq

Oman

Definately hoping for South Korea and Lebanon in the next phase. They are the two that I would definately go to, and from the stories I was told from others Uzbekistan is definately another to put onto the agenda.

 Wouldn't mind going to Korea, Iran or Lebanon!

Guess due to this Denmark match being scheduled we know that we are recieving the bye on match day 1 (Jun3) and probably that we have an away game on match day 2 (Jun 8).

Guess its gonna be just like 2010 qualifying where we cleaned up the Dutch on our bye round before beating Uzbek away 4 days later - hope it pans out exactly the same this time around

you could well be on the money Josh

on that basis, there is also likely to be a home qualifier on 12 June under current AFC schedule for match days

Josh wrote:

Guess due to this Denmark match being scheduled we know that we are recieving the bye on match day 1 (Jun3) and probably that we have an away game on match day 2 (Jun 8).

Guess its gonna be just like 2010 qualifying where we cleaned up the Dutch on our bye round before beating Uzbek away 4 days later - hope it pans out exactly the same this time around

R4 draw update and most likely scenarios:

Current FIFA rankings (as of 20 Dec) for AFC teams either qualified or highly likely to qualify for R4:

Japan 19, Australia 22, Korea 32, Iran 45, Uzbekistan 76, Iraq 81, Jordan 82, Qatar 95, Lebanon 111

in our group any of other three could qualify inc Oman 93, Saudi Arabia 98, Thailand 132

If seedings and draw is same as for 2008-2009 AFC R4 qualifiers, then the pots will be:

Pot 1 Japan, Australia

Pot 2 Korea, Iran

Pot 3 5-6 ranked, so Uzbekistan, Iraq

Pot 4 7-10 ranked, so most likely Jordan, Qatar, Lebanon plus one from our group

On this basis, we cannot draw Japan and will meet either Iran or Korea, one from Uzbeks or Iraq, and then two from Pot 4

Of course this assumes that AFC will revert to previous system

Updated FIFA rankings (as of 18/1/12):

Japan 19, Australia 21, Korea 30, Iran 45, Uzbekistan 67, Iraq 73, Jordan 81, Qatar 97, Lebanon 112

in our group any of other three could qualify inc Oman 90, Saudi Arabia 87, Thailand 124

(Next update/release by FIFA on 15/2/12)

http://www.the-afc.com/en/tournaments/men-a-youth/fifa-world-cup/37837-brazil-2014-qual-last-round-draw-on-9-march

Final Round draw date

Kuala Lumpur: The 2014 F1FA World Cup Brazil Asian Qualifiers Final Round draw will be held on March 9 at 16.00hrs at a venue to be confirmed soon.

In a letter dated 25 January, the AFC states that it will confirm the 10 qualified Member Associations who are eligible to participate in the Final Round upon the completion of Round 3 on 29 February.

The 10 Member Associations will qualify for the Final Round of the competition by virtue of finishing as winners and runners-up from Round 3 in their respective groups.

The 10 teams will be drawn into two round-robin, home-and-away groups of five teams each for the Final Round whose matches will be held from 3 June 2012 to18 June 2013.

http://www.the-afc.com/en/tournaments/men-a-youth/fifa-world-cup/37905-fifa-ranking-rescheduled-to-march-7

FIFA Ranking rescheduled to March 7

Friday, 03 February 2012

Zurich: FIFA have decided to push the publication of the latest FIFA-Coca-Cola Ranking to March 7 in order that the last day of matches in Round 3 of the Asian Qualifiers for the 2014 FIFA World Cup will be taken into account.

The FIFA Ranking will be used to determine seeding for the draw for the Final Round of Brazil 2014 qualifiers, scheduled to take place in Kuala Lumpur on March 9.

The third qualifying round concludes on February 29 with the winners and runners-up of the five groups entering the draw where they will be pooled into two groups of five teams.

The top-two teams from these groups will represent Asia at the 2014 FIFA World Cup while the two third-place teams take part in a home-and-away playoff with the victorious side taking on a representative from South America (CONMEBOL) in a two-leg fixture with a ticket to the finals at stake.

 

UPDATE: Draw for R4 qualifiers and live TV coverage on Friday 9 March

Time diff is 3 hrs, so if confirmed for 4pm KL-Malaysia time, then following times in Oz:

7pm NSW/VIC/TAS (so no clash with HAL game kick off at 8pm)
6pm QLD
6-30pm SA
5-30pm NT
4pm WA

Football producer at Fox has just confirmed draw will be live on Fox Sports News.

Pablo B wrote:

The FIFA Ranking will be used to determine seeding for the draw for the Final Round of Brazil 2014 qualifiers, scheduled to take place in Kuala Lumpur on March 9.

This therefore guarantees us that we will not face Japan in the next phase.  It will then be an even money chance (being two groups) of facing all other qualified nations.

what will be crucial is to avoid south korea.

there'll be a 50% chance we face Korea and 50% Iran (Pot 2)

same chances for playing either Uzbekistan or Iraq
(Pot 3)

(agree that playing Iran would be preference in terms of away trip destination, although they are on the rise again in football and will be very difficult opponents esp given the history)

Actually we could face Japan if they fall behind Korea (by losing and Korea winning).

Pot 1 is AUS + JPN (or maybe KOR)

Pot 2 in KOR (or maybe JPN) + IRN

(check out http://www.football-rankings.info/2012/02/2014-fifa-world-cup-seeding-afc-4th.html)

J

Guys, I've done some work on predicting the updated FIFA rankings based on yesterdays matches. Actually the FIFA ranking website makes this fairly easy and even has all of the reuslts pre-loaded.

The outcome is that South Korea will leap frog Japan after their respective win/loss. The forecast rankings of the 10 qualified team and their FIFA ranking points are:

1. Australia 868
2. South Korea 751
3. Japan 740
4. Iran 574
5. Uzbekistan 502
6. Iraq 443
7. Jordan 420
8. Qatar 388
9. Oman 381
10. Lebanon 277

Therefore, assuming there are 4 pots, they will look like this:

Pot 1: Australia, South Korea
Pot 2: Japan, Iran
Pot 3: Uzbekistan, Iraq
Pot 4: Jordan, Qatar, Oman, Lebanon

Following up from the expected pot allocation, I reckon...

Best Case Draw (for qualifying)
Iran (Japan???)
Iraq
Qatar
Lebanon

Worst Case Draw (for qualifying)
Japan (Iran??)
Uzbekistan
Jordan
Oman

Best Case Draw (for travelling)
Iran
Uzbekistan
Jordan
Lebanon

I really don't know whether we will have more trouble with Iran or Japan, either way it will be the critical match-up to determine top of the group (not that top comes with any advantage except a less stressful last few games)

Rumoured Home/Away schedule for the Phase 4 Quallies:

I got the dates from Muz's post months ago before Phase 3. Totally guessing the home match locations.

3rd June 2012 – Bye - Friendly in Copenhagen
8th June 2012 - Away WCQ in the Middle East
12th June 2012 - Home WCQ (Brisbane)
11th September 2012 – Away WCQ
16th October 2012 – Home WCQ (Sydney)
14th November – Away WCQ
26th March 2013 – Bye or Away WCQ
4th June 2013 – Bye or Away WCQ
11th June 2013 – Home WCQ (Syd/Mel)
18th June 2013 – Home WCQ (Syd/Mel)

Mikey R wrote:

Rumoured Home/Away schedule for the Phase 4 Quallies:

I got the dates from Muz's post months ago before Phase 3. Totally guessing the home match locations.

3rd June 2012 – Bye - Friendly in Copenhagen
8th June 2012 - Away WCQ in the Middle East
12th June 2012 - Home WCQ (Brisbane)
11th September 2012 – Away WCQ
16th October 2012 – Home WCQ (Sydney)
14th November – Away WCQ
26th March 2013 – Bye or Away WCQ
4th June 2013 – Bye or Away WCQ
11th June 2013 – Home WCQ (Syd/Mel)
18th June 2013 – Home WCQ (Syd/Mel)

Hi Mikey,

I believe it will look like this:

MD1 - June 3 '12 - BYE (Denmark Friendly)

MD2 - June 8 '12 - AWAY POT 4 (JOR/OMA/QAT)

MD3 - June 12 '12 - HOME POT 4 (OMA/QAT/LEB)

MD4 - Sep 11 '12 - AWAY POT 3 (UZB/IRQ)

MD5 - Oct 16 '12 - AWAY POT 2 (JPN/IRN)

MD6 - Nov 14 '12 - BYE

MD7 - Mar 26 '13 - HOME POT 4 (JOR/OMA/QAT)

MD8 - June 4 '13 - AWAY POT 4 (OMA/QAT/LEB)

MD9 - June 11 '13 - HOME POT 3 (UZB/IRQ)

MD10 - June 18 '13 - HOME POT 2 (JPN/IRN)

 

That would make sense and mostly fits into the rumours i've heard.

Is that how the 2010 WCQ P4 panned out?

Sorry,

Looks like my above post is incorrect if we draw Japan...

"As the competition partially overlaps with the 2013 FIFA Confederations Cup, which is scheduled to be held from 16 June 2013, the AFC decided that the match day will be adjusted only for Japan, the representative of AFC for the Confederations Cup, placing them on Position 5 in their group in order not to play on 18 June 2013"

Japan at home  I think would be MD3 and away on MD8.

Not sure if Japan would directly swap with team 5 OR go to the bottom with the others each bumping up 1 position..?

The draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup Asian Qualifiers (Final Round) will be held at AFC House, Kuala Lumpur, on March 9, 2012, at 1600 hours.

The draw ceremony will be attended by several team representatives, including Gary Moretti (Manager, Australia), Paul Le Guen (Coach, Oman), Carlos Queiroz (Coach, Iran), Zico (Coach, Iraq), Adnan Hamad (Coach, Jordan), Choi Kang Hee (Coach, Korea Republic), Hiromi Hara (Technical Director, Japan), Shuhrat Maksudov (Assistant Coach, Uzbekistan) , Fahad Abdulla Al Zarraa (Assistant Coach, Qatar) and Johannes Theodor Bucker (Coach, Lebanon).

Also in attendance would be Asian legends Mehdi Mahdavikia of Iran and Tsuneyasu Miyamoto of Japan.

(Live Broadcast on Fox Sport News: 7pm NSW, ACT, VIC, TAS - 6pm QLD - 6-30pm SA - 5-30pm NT - 4pm WA)

Live draw gathering:

For those in Sydney, we are gathering for live draw coverage at 7pm on this Friday at:

"Cheers" Sports Bar - 561 George Street, CBD (just down from Town Hall Station)

http://www.cheersbar.com.au/default.htm

Melbourne venue for the draw:

Charles Dickens Tavern

Friday 7pm

 London Venue:

Classroom computer at school during maths/geography lesson.

Get in!